Wednesday, July 29, 2009

lets make a deal: giants

why the giants want halladay: so i just read an article on baseball prospectus stating that the giants' odds of making the playoffs would more than double with halladay. this, of course is all based on lots of fancy math that i dont care to try to understand. there was also another fancy article over there explaining how much money a team stands to earn if the team makes the playoffs. it breaks down like this: a team earns an additional 25 million for losing in the first round, an extra 45 million for losing in the league championship, 75 million more for losing the world series and 105 million for winning the world series. if you're the giants, why not trade some of your stockpiled pitching talent for a 28% chance of at least 25 million in extra revenue while only paying halladay about 6 million for the rest of the season.

a third article on prospectus detailed the giants windfall of young pitching with madison bumgarner leading the way. while the giants may be reluctant to include young madison, they still have many other great pitching prospects. i think the blue jays would take a deal including tim alderson, jonathan sanchez, and angel villalona. wouldn't the giants become instant favorite for the wild card and big time contenders in the nl this year? look at 2010's starting rotation. lincecum, halladay, cain, and bumgarner (in may). oh yea, and who could forget the 126 million dollar man, barry zito? sounds like favorites to win it all to me.

probability of this deal getting done: low, the giants need offense. they'll dangle that youthful pitching to try to get a big stick. although, with philly getting lee, its a better chance that before.

p.s. philly got lee, but did you notice that all 3 players that the jays wanted are still available?

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